ALW Semi-Finals Preview: Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United

Adelaide United venture into the A-League Women semi-finals for the first time ever this Sunday, for the first game of a double-legged clash with the Melbourne Victory.

Adelaide come into the match in good form, having secured a hardy and resilient 1-0 result over Western United at Coopers Stadium last weekend.

It wasn’t the easiest of jobs for the Reds with a first half goal for Matilda McNamara proving the difference. 

But the defensive unit really stood up and Claudia Jenkins looked typically self-assured between the sticks.

Ultimately, pure grit and determination saw Adelaide hold on, and it’s likely they’ll need more of that over the next two games to see off the Victory. 

Melbourne Victory, meanwhile, had a week off after finishing second in the league guaranteed them a semi-final spot.

The teams have already met twice this season, with the Victory prevailing in both games 3-2 and 2-1.

Key Players

Ella Tonkin

Head coach Adrian Stenta had plenty of praise for Tonkin’s performance and consistency this season, and she was a crucial part of Adelaide’s defensive structure in the elimination final.

Her ability to keep the shape, while being tenacious in challenges and a savvy player on the ball meant that while Western United had plenty of possession, they were limited to low percentage chances and few obvious goal scoring opportunities.

Matilda McNamara

Yet another key piece in the Reds’ strong defence, McNamara has been a real leader on the pitch for Adelaide this season, helping bed new defensive players and operating well with goalkeeper Jenkins to organise the defensive unit.

But it was another side to her game that could make her the key here: her threat from attacking set pieces. McNamara was the hero with her headed goal in the elimination final, and in knock-out games it can sometimes come down to making the most of set pieces.

Sarah Morgan

Perhaps one of the more underrated players for Adelaide this season has been Sarah Morgan. She’s a great midfielder, able to progress the ball calmly and confidently under pressure in central areas.

In addition, she has a physical edge to her game that can cause problems for opponents, and she was in the mix against Western United, often being used to press and harass opposition ball carriers.

Kayla Morrison

The Melbourne Victory captain is a cornerstone player of the club who is incredibly solid in the defensive line, but has been known to pop up with some game-changing goals at the other end of the field, scoring four of them this season.

A captain’s knock will certainly be required from Morrison if Victory are to advance to the Grand Final, and perhaps another sneaky goal from a set-piece.

Emily Gielnik

Falling short of the golden boot for the season (she was tied for second with 12 goals), Emily Gielnik is a key cog to the machine that is Melbourne Victory’s attack.

Far outperforming her xG for the season (7.8 expected goals, 12 actual goals scored), she has been clinical in front of goal and found goals at crucial moments for her side to pick-up results.

If she can contribute with a goal or two across the two-legs, it will go a long way to another Grand Final appearance for the Victory.

Alana Jančevski

Arriving in the off-season from Adelaide United, the versatile 22-year-old has been crucial to Melbourne Victory throughout the campaign.

An attacking player by trade, she has had to fill in at left-back for a significant portion of the season due to injuries and retirements, and has hardly put a foot wrong despite it not being her position of choice and has still found ways to contribute on the score sheet with five goals and three assists.

Regardless of which end of the pitch she is needed at across the contests, Jančevski will need to be at her best if she wants to compete in her first A-League Women Grand Final.

How Adelaide Win

This fixture has not been nice to Adelaide this season, with one goal losses in both previous match ups.

Victory are an incredibly talented side, so winning the fixture will require Adelaide to be in top form and capitalise on the chances they create. There’s not a lot of wiggle room against an opponent who can capitalise on a weaker performance, unlike last weekend when an off performance wasn’t the be all and end all. 

Building a strong lead in the first, home, leg will be key. Taking a lead to Melbourne will give the Reds the chance to really scrap for a result away from home, and force Victory into chasing the game.

It would also seem that Adelaide could effectively kill the game in the first leg. Their attacking prowess – with the likes of Fiona Worts, Erin Healy and Chelsie Dawber as the big threats – has time and again this season stamped their authority on the opposition and scored two or three goals in quick succession. A similar performance at home, with a large crowd expected, would do wonders for their chances away the following week.

And, as big as this fixture is in the history of the club, the team cannot afford to let the occasion get to them. Recognise its significance, sure, but they have to put it all behind them, and Stenta has a job on his hands to keep the side focused on the job ahead of them.

How Melbourne Victory win

Jeff Hopkins has earned a reputation at getting his sides to peak at exactly the right times of a season, usually in the finals, and success has followed.

But with the Victory having had such a dominant season, losing only two games, one of those to Melbourne City, it could be argued they do not need to peak in the finals, because they’ve been doing so all season.

Had they not dropped two points to the Wanderers in a 4-4 thriller or two points to City in a 1-1 draw in games they led late on, they could have finished on top, but the conversation around how they win their semi-final clash would not change.

What they’re doing has worked all season, and you don’t fix what isn’t broken, so as long as the Victory keep doing exactly what they’ve done all season, they’ll advance to their third Grand Final in the last five seasons.

Prediction

It is very difficult to look past the fact that Victory have had the upper hand in this match up all season. They have a lot of talent, play some brilliant football, and have shown they are a very difficult side to beat.

And while this has been a fairytale season for Adelaide, they have had moments of nervousness, especially last week, and with a few key players (Healy and Dawber) still not 100 per cent fit, it’s an even more difficult job.

It’d be surprising to see anything other than a Victory win after the two legs. Expect a strong performance at home from the Reds, but when all is said and done it will likely be Melbourne who head to the big one.

Listen to the latest episode of The Dubcast, Round Ball Australia’s Women’s Football podcast on Spotify, Apple, or watch on YouTube, with new episodes every Wednesday.

Piece co-authored by Jacob Stevens and Poletti