FIFA World Cup Playoffs 2026: Can Arnie and Iraq book their date with destiny?

Come the international window in late March of 2026, it will have been 23 weeks since Amir Al-Ammari’s penalty sent Graham Arnold’s Iraq through at the expensive of the UAE to an adoring crowd in the Iraqi metropolis of Basra.

The team now sit on the precipice of an elusive second ever World Cup appearence. Having last competed at Mexico 1986, it becomes fitting that their fate is now decided with a playoff in the city of Monterrey, Mexico, exactly 40 years later.

The playoff itself is not too disimilar to what Graham Arnold experienced in June of 2022 with the Socceroos, thanks to having the second highest FIFA ranking of the six teams qualified to the FIFA Intercontinental playoffs, Iraq along with CAF’s D.R. Congo were given a bye and placed into seperate paths of the draw, meaning they would play just one singular match on March 31st, while their opponents would be in battle five days earlier.

On Iraq’s side of the draw is an all-Americas showdown between CONMEBOL giant killers Bolivia and CONCACAF surprise packet Suriname.

So how do the Iraqi outfit shape up against either side, and can Graham Arnold’s magic strike yet again on this all too familiar of stages?

The Run In

Looking at Iraq themselves, the period thereafter the aforementioned AFC 5th Round playoff vs UAE was filled by the FIFA Arab Cup in December, Iraq making it to the quarter finals, having knocked off Bahrain and Sudan in the group stage.

In the quarter final itself, scenes were all too familiar, a pain staking loss to known foes Jordan proved heartbreaking.

In honesty it can be forgiven, at least by those in the english speaking world, as this Arab Cup took place outside of the international window, and the squad was rotated for most competing nations.

Only Marko Farji based in Norway with Stromsgodset, and Sweden-based Amar Muhsin from Brage appeared from Europe.

That said, game time for key players Ali Jasim and Aymen Hussein were taken during the cup, as both currently play in middle eastern competitions which mostly paused for the cup.

The key area in which the loss helped was truthfully the cutthroat nature of the match, this essentially made a series of international competition, in the last three months of 2025 that Iraq had gone into the window playing nothing but high stakes football.

In September the team took on the much criticised fourth round of AFC qualifcation having to pit themselves against Indonesia and a Saudi Arabia team on home soil.

Iraqi came clsose to an upset in the fourth round of qualification (Asian Football Confederation)

A feisty win against Indonesia 1-0 then pitted a fairly stand-offish Saudi team, a subsequent 0-0 playing out that only really favoured Saudi to progress to the World Cup on goal difference.

Of course within the month was the fifth and final round, Iraq proving superior, to then follow up with the Arab Cup was meaningful experience, more so for the rotated side.

The Playoffs

Looking ahead to the threat a Bolivia or Suriname match poses and the question is a little more nuanced then it would otherwise be due to the Mexican sorrounds that both teams may know well.

Addressing the obvious factor with Bolivia, Estadio BBVA only sits approximately 450–538 meters above sea level, their renowned high altitude bonus that helps them beat the world’s best at the famed “El Alto” stadium will not come in to play anywhere near as much in the playoffs.

More tangibly on the field, they are bolstered by dangerous attacking midfielder Ramiro Vaca who stands out for his January move from home comforts in the Americas to Moroccan giants Wydad Casablanca. With 45 caps by the age of 26 and key combination play largely off his boot, he will need that classic stubborn approach of Arnie’s to counter his very best.

It is worth noting that Bolivia rarely test themselves outside their own bubble but in the October window played a friendly with Jordan in Istanbul, Turkey, winning 1-0 through a 90th minute winner at the death. A result the team and federation likely look at with a strong sense of poise for a final encounter.

South American teams often mentally become unstuck through an aging mentality and a total ignorance of what lies before them, the October result pointing quite closely to the contrary in a massive time for the nation, whreby it can ill afford to point any feet firmly in the wrong direction.

With Suriname the picture is painted a lot clearer, Iraq and Bolivia’s at times stubborn and punishing style of play is substituted with more freedom and belief, powering a journey they and many others went on to shock CONCACAF’s qualifcation path this past few months.

Suriname’s ruthlessness conquered many established names in the region (CONCACF on X)

Much like fellow Dutch inspired nation and world cup debutant Curacao, Suriname have called the diaspora into the team at record high rates, the european influence on such teams proving the pecking order was long due for the change when witnessed in the cycle.

A backline of Serie B Venezia’s Ridgeciano Haps, Turkish based wing-back Anfernee Dijksteel and Saudi based Shaquille Pinas among others prove a really high calibre of team not immidiately drawn to mind when one thinks of Suriname.

Going forward the proposition becomes even more of a threat – essentially all key starters play in a top 10 league in Europe, thus their expressiveness and high goal threat becomes obvious.

Sheraldo Becker at Mainz, Virgil Misidjan at NEC Nijmegen, Darmstadt’s Jean-Paul Boetius and Antalyspor’s Kenneth Paal all form an extremely handed task with careers forged in major domestic systems in Europe. Especially of course Dutch based stars like Misidjan.

Get too overawed by the realms of unfamilair sorrounds and mentally the team can fumble a big opportunity. An uncharacteristic 3-1 loss to Guatemala, and a 4-3 fixture with Costa Rica at the last Gold Cup a sign of things that may arise, not just against a feisty Bolivia, but one only has to think of the round of 16 clash at the Asian Cup to know Iraq enjoy the chaos too.

All in all, what stands for Iraq amongst the challenge, be it a ruggered defensive counter of Suriname, or a physical battle with Bolivia is their team culture.

Graham Arnold knows nothing but to employ an unwiltered and strong spirit, one the players have clearly bought into and believe. The cultral gap closed by Australian-Iraqi Ali Abbas on the coaching staff, and a current star Zidane Iqbal who’s Northern English upbringing to Iraqi and Pakistani parents mimics elements of the Australian lifestyle helping Arnold cut through even deeper to the team.

Is this kind of thing, when mixing the Socceroos physicality and “grit” we are globally known for with the passion and flair unique to the arab mindset you end up with a mix that’s capable of conquering some of the very best on it’s day.

The mission in Mexico does not pose an easy test, but the idea it is something beyond the team, or Arnold coaching credentials simply does not hold with fact. The team can achieve their wildest dreams, and Australian Football will achieve something just as special in the process, the knowledge that our global standard is one to be respected.